Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Revenge, the Tie that Binds Obama's Winning Coalition

While contemplating last night's historic election results I could not shake from my thoughts the words famously spoken by Peter Cushing in George Lucas's Star Wars, "the last remnants of the Old Republic have been swept away."  It appears, that in this case, life has imitated art.  And, Obama's prescription for voting being the best revenge has enshrined a power structure at the national level that is likely never to be broken.

Many political pundits have been warning for years that America's impending demographic shift would forever relegate the Republican party into obscurity.  Now it appears that idea which many of us believed lay over the distant horizon is now reality.  The time to alter that shift has passed and the hopes some had that the founding principles would be contagious to this growing segment of America appears not to be enough to convince them to embrace those values.

Most voters said they did not agree with Obama's policies or the direction he is taking the country.  52% said America was on the wrong track.  77% said the economy was not good or worse than when he took office.  74% said they are worse off or the same as they were 4 years ago.  And half of voters said they were dissatisfied or angry about the Obama administration.  Yet, they still decided to cast their ballots for him.  Why?

The media tells us that America has become increasingly polarized.  Republicans latch onto this idea in order to convince themselves that they can stem the tide of socialism by reversing this polarization.  But the truth is there is only one demographic that has become polarized and that demographic is white Americans who voted 59% for Romney and 41% for Obama.  All other demographics have uniformly embraced a Democratic party that grows increasingly leftist by the day.

Let's take a look at Obama's winning coalition:

  • Blacks - Obama 93%
  • Hispanics - Obama 71% (up 4 points over 2008)
  • Asian - Obama 73% (up 11 points over 2008)
  • Jews - Obama 69%
Source: NY Times

Establishment Republicans will use these numbers to call on fellow Republicans to embrace comprehensive immigration reform.  They will tell say that for Republicans to remain viable they need to embrace the Hispanic demographic, which is the fastest growing demographic in the country, and Democrats will be all to happy to go along with that message.  But will pandering to Hispanic voters actually win Republicans support among the group?

This election Obama and Democrats successfully defined the Republican party to their coalition of minority voters as the party of rich, white men.  Obama tapped into their deep seeded feelings of resentment and and exploited their victimology to effectively place the blame on their position in life, not on his policies or their actions, but on a falsely perceived unfair advantage granted to whites.  More over, Republicans have pandered to minority groups in the past will little result.

Ever since the 1975 Memorandum of Understanding Republicans have embraced the interests of one of the most influential demographics in the United States, the Jewish demo.  Despite that group having brought the world such grand social ideals as Marxism  communism, socialism, political correctness, the sexual revolution, and the tolerance movement that Herbert Marcuse explained as tolerating any idea, no matter how repulsive, from the left and not tolerating any ideas from the right, Republicans have willingly committed America's blood and treasure to the protection of Israel.  They have removed immigration requirements that were meant to protect against foreign allegiances.  And, since George W. Bush took office, they have been all too willing to fight offensive wars in the Middle East that serve only Israel's interests.  Despite President Obama time and again rebuking the nation of Israel, Jewish voters still could not be swayed to shift their support to the GOP.

What will happen to the Republican party should they embrace Hispanics' interests as Republicans like Jeb Bush, Karl Rove, and Bill Kristol demand?  I believe that instead of finding a renewed and vibrant Republican party, they would find a country in which exists, as Bill Clinton put it, two Americas.  One where Spanish speaking citizens learn from text books that teach an alternate version of history and where they read in newspapers a distinctly different view of current events.  One where virtually overnight more than 20 million illegal immigrants would become citizens with all the rights and privileges that come with such distinction.  

If the current breakdown of Democrat and Republican support among Hispanics were to hold true with these 20 million new Americans, and there is no reason to believe it wouldn't, Democrats would gain 14 million new voters.  The increase in Democrat voters resulting from comprehensive immigration reform isn't the end of the story.  Each month more than 100,000 new legal immigrants enter the country, most trying to  escape poverty stricken third world nations.  And now, for the first time in history, there are more non-white children under the age of one, 50.4%, then there are white children.

Many experts have predicted that at current immigration and demographic change rates Texas would become a blue state by 2016.  Should comprehensive immigration reform occur, not only would Texas, Arizona and Florida be permanently added to the blue column, but traditionally red states like Kansas and Oklahoma would become toss-ups due to their large illegal immigrant populations.  

Last night's election results have proven that it is already too late for Republicans when it comes to national elections.  Establishment GOP leaders will have no choice moving forward but to embrace these growing demographics so they can try and hang on to what little power they have left.  

Republican voters will likely never be as energized as they were in 2012.  Thus, it appears that if every day, middle-class Americans want to continue to have a say on who their next president will be and how quickly the country's move to the left will be, their best option seems to be to register as Democrats.


lee woo said...

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Leslie Lim said...

I read your blog.I thought it was great.. Hope you have a great day. God bless.