Monday, October 22, 2012

Democrats Renew Old Criticisms of Gallup


The Gallup presidential tracking poll continues to show Romney with a significant lead over Obama among likely voters.  Democrats have used this to try and claim Gallup is over sampling Republicans.  Likewise, Republicans criticize other polls that show the race as tied as oversampling Democrats by a wide margin.

While the 2004 presidential certainly didn't end with a 14% advantage to Bush over Kerry, it also didn't end in September, when the poll was done that is being criticized by MoveOn.org.  In fact, by October 03, Gallup showed the race as a dead heat.  Bush went on to when 50 to 48%.  In addition, final turnout according to exit polls was made up of 37% Democrat and 37% Republicans, calling into question any oversampling.

In the end Gallup, explains their methodology for weighting by party identification as non-existent.  Meaning, they do not weight by party ID at all.  They make their calls and just report on the percentages that claimed to be identified with each party.  Whether this results in valid, usable data is another question entirely, but past performance may be a strong indicator.

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