Thursday, September 18, 2008

For Whom the Bellwether State Tolls

If history can be any indication of future performance, the Obama campaign may be in big trouble come this November.

The political poll tracking site FiveThirtyEight.com has compiled polling data from all major polls in order to try and determine who may have the electoral map needed to win the 2008 Presidential election. Unfortunately for Obama, it would seem the political phenomenon known as the Missouri bellwether has swung against him.

In all but one presidential election since 1904, the state of Missouri has gone to the ultimate winner of the election. Now it appears that Missouri has moved significantly into the McCain column. The site puts the odds of a McCain victory in MO at 87% based on polling data that has him up by as much as 17% in the key swing state.

McCain's widening lead in the state means his campaign is quickly reaching a point where it can begun diverting campaign dollars into other key battleground states like Colorado and Ohio.

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